Why Pep Guardiola and Man City find themselves at a crossroads in hunt for Premier League dominance

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Bands often talk about the ‘difficult’ second album. Governments seldom win a fourth term in office. In the Premier League, it’s a case of the tricky third title.

Only Sir Alex Ferguson’s finest Manchester United teams have achieved three successive championships in the post-1992 era and only after having previously fallen short.

It takes a unique combination of hunger, squad renewal and circumstance to make it three in a row. Just ask Pep Guardiola‘s Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola looks on wistfully as Manchester City are beaten at Chelsea on Thursday night

Pep Guardiola looks on wistfully as Manchester City are beaten at Chelsea on Thursday night

City's 2-1 defeat confirmed Liverpool as Premier League champions for the first time

City’s 2-1 defeat confirmed Liverpool as Premier League champions for the first time

During pre-season, Ferguson used to go around United’s dressing room and look each player in the eye to gauge their desire for further success. He knew there and then how the season would unfold.

Guardiola doubtless did the same back in July and yet here we are with City miserably 23 points adrift of newly-crowned champions Liverpool with seven matches still to play.

It looks inevitable that Liverpool will snatch a good few of City’s Premier League records as well before the season winds down in late July.

Obviously Liverpool are worthy winners. Jurgen Klopp’s side have set the standard from day one of the season, marching clear at the top with a relentlessness and consistency of winning never before seen in the Premier League.

They’ve gone from finishing 25 points shy of City in the 2017-18 season to a similar margin ahead this time, testament to a phenomenal improvement inspired by their manager.

Familiar defensive failing was exposed as Chelsea scored through Christian Pulisic

Familiar defensive failing was exposed as Chelsea scored through Christian Pulisic 

Their makeshift centre back Fernandinho handled on the line and was sent off late on

Their makeshift centre back Fernandinho handled on the line and was sent off late on

But after back-to-back title successes, City just haven’t been able to push Liverpool close as everyone expected.

Thursday night’s loss at Chelsea was their eighth of the league season, the same number as Leicester, Man United and Arsenal. City had only lost 12 games in the previous three seasons and six in the past two. 

The manner of their loss at Stamford Bridge pointed to the chief reason for their struggles – defensive deficiency.

Benjamin Mendy made the terrible mistake that allowed Christian Pulisic to charge through for Chelsea’s opener, then Fernandinho handled on the line to stop Tammy Abraham scoring and was sent off.

As in so many of their defeats this season, City’s failure to replace the defensive leadership of Vincent Kompany last summer came back to haunt them.

While it’s true that Kompany, 33 when he left City, was increasingly injury-prone and played less frequently in his final seasons with the club, he was a galvanising presence on and off the field.

Kevin De Bruyne reflects on what was City's eighth loss of the Premier League campaign

Kevin De Bruyne reflects on what was City’s eighth loss of the Premier League campaign

Raheem Sterling has been excellent again this season but Thursday was a frustrating night

Raheem Sterling has been excellent again this season but was left frustrated on Thursday

While Liverpool solved long-standing defensive woes and were transformed by spending £75million on Virgil van Dijk, City decided they couldn’t afford Harry Maguire and didn’t bother signing a centre half last summer.

How that came back to bite them when Aymeric Laporte, their one world-class player in that position, suffered a knee injury in August that kept him sidelined until January.

John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi weren’t as reliable and Fernandinho, no spring chicken at 35, was drafted in to an increasingly fragile back line.

The Brazilian did his best in an unfamiliar role but modern defenders need to be quick off the mark with first-rate anticipation to stop teams that counter attack with pace. Unfortunately, Fernandinho couldn’t offer that protection.

It didn’t take long for opponents to pick up on City’s sudden vulnerability. They lost their first league game without Laporte 3-2 at Norwich and further losses before Christmas to Wolves, Liverpool and Man United meant the title race was as good as decided.

City failed to replace the leadership of Vincent Kompany and have paid a costly price

City failed to replace the leadership of Vincent Kompany and have paid a costly price

City decided Harry Maguire was too expensive and the defender moved to Man United instead

City decided Harry Maguire was too expensive and the defender moved to Man United instead

Aymeric Laporte's early season injury left Guardiola short of reliable defensive options

Aymeric Laporte’s early season injury left Guardiola short of reliable defensive options

Failing to buy a defender last summer to replace Kompany has proved a costly oversight. It’s led to a situation where opponents know they can hurt City on the break.

Guardiola’s side, so used to dictating the tempo of games and dominating possession, have also been guilty of switching off and losing their focus on occasion in games and have been punished. 

Perhaps that burning desire to win a first Champions League, one of the main reasons Guardiola was appointed and magnified in light of the possible two-year European ban, has seen City take their eye off the ball domestically.

They are well-placed in Europe, having beaten Real Madrid 2-1 away from home in the first leg of their last-16 tie and the feeling grows these final few Premier League games are simply a warm-up for the main event in August.

Only by winning the Champions League can City reflect on this campaign with any form of satisfaction.  

City can salvage their season by winning the Champions League and lead Real Madrid 2-1

City can salvage their season by winning the Champions League and lead Real Madrid 2-1

Phil Foden looks set to be a ready-made replacement for David Silva when he departs

Phil Foden looks set to be a ready-made replacement for David Silva when he departs

In attack, City have looked as ruthless as ever – they have scored seven goals more than Liverpool in the league – and are on course to match or exceed last season’s tally of 95.

Sergio Aguero has once again been excellent, as have Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri and Raheem Sterling. In full flow, City are as exciting to watch as they’ve ever been under Guardiola.

But even in their strongest departments, there’s now a feeling of transition as Guardiola looks to rebuild for next season’s assault on the major honours.

Surely the principal transfer target this summer will be an authoritative centre back to restore the leadership lost when four-time Premier League winner Kompany departed?

But even in a deflated transfer market post-Covid-19, such a player will cost them a pretty penny.  

Replacing the goals of Sergio Aguero will become a priority for City in the next year or two

Replacing the goals of Sergio Aguero will become a priority for City in the next year or two

David Silva and his sprinkling of stardust will be sadly missed but, as Guardiola said the other day, there is a ready-made replacement in Phil Foden.

And it’s unlikely 32-year-old Aguero, the club’s all-time leading goalscorer, will be around too much longer and his will be big shoes to fill. Replacing him needs to be high on the to-do list. 

But the looming European ban could change everything. Guardiola is contracted until the end of next season and has vowed to continue even in the absence of Champions League football.

Guardiola's efforts to build another excellent team could be thwarted by a European ban

Guardiola’s efforts to build another excellent team could be thwarted by a European ban

However the task of rebuilding, of enticing the highest quality players, of persuading existing stars to commit, becomes that much more difficult if their appeal to CAS fails.

We will soon know the verdict and City’s fate. The knock-on effects will take slightly longer to become apparent.

What is for certain is that Liverpool have already surpassed City this season and Klopp wants to build a dynasty. Chelsea and Man United are growing forces again. 

And Guardiola has much unenviable work to do.

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