This could be a classic in Cardiff. The winners will wake up on Sunday morning and realise they are set up for a special World Cup year while the losers will look beatable in the eyes of all future opponents.
It looks a great Test match in terms of the quality of the players. Both sides are pretty much at full strength with maybe only two from each side who would play if fit.
England would have Mako Vunipola and Maro Itoje in their gun team and Wales might like a fit Leigh Halfpenny and Taulupe Faletau in their side but other than that these are their best teams, so there are no excuses now.
Mark Wilson has been a key part of England’s all-conquering back row so far this campaign
Wales are on an amazing 11-match unbeaten run and England have had a huge bounce-back from 2018 and both are led by excellent coaches playing themselves into contention for the World Cup. Both could win that tournament, so this game is set up perfectly.
Respectively, Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland have built it up in the media and both will know this is their biggest game until we get to Japan.
The result sets the tone for the whole year ahead so should be fantastic. Here is how I see it panning out this afternoon.
England are becoming good at finding space, whether it is through passing or kicking, but Wales won’t fall into the traps France did by leaving so much room at the back.
What the visitors might do in Cardiff is bombard George North and Josh Adams in the air
France just played everyone in the front line, it was ridiculous. Wales are a far better team and are far-better coached. They are a class above France so I would be surprised if England score from a kick.
What they might do is bombard George North and Josh Adams in the air but they won’t have so much joy on the floor this time.
However, there are two areas they must concentrate on…
1 BREAKDOWN
The back-row battle will be fascinating. I think the Welsh trio of Josh Navidi, Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty just have a little more pace than England’s three of Mark Wilson, Tom Curry and Billy Vunipola.
Tipuric is a fantastic player and has come out of Sam Warburton’s shadow since the former captain had to retire. He and Navidi can be really dangerous operating as two No 7s, a ploy that has disrupted England before, as they are quick and aggressive.
Justin Tipuric has come out of Sam Warburton’s shadow since the former captain had to retire
England’s back row has been all-conquering so far — they completely outplayed the Irish and smashed the French — but if Wales can front up as I’m sure they will it will make for a great battle.
Wales’ back-row is more experienced than England’s, too. The Welsh trio have 102 caps between them, and England’s have 55, with 38 of them Billy Vunipola’s. Wilson and Curry have never started a match in Cardiff either, so this is a baptism of fire for them.
I’m a firm believer that the only way to beat pace is with pace, the textbook example being England’s first half against Ireland. You have to make back-rowers chase breakdowns, not allow them to get into a rhythm. The same thing applies on Saturday: if England allow Tipuric and Navidi to get over the ball there will be trouble.
The breakdown area is not just the responsibility of the forwards. Often a back is the first to the ruck so anyone in a white shirt has to beat the red shirt. If they get there second they will not be able to move the Welsh.
2 LINEOUT
Gatland has picked Cory Hill as a lineout specialist for Wales to try to sort out their problems there. It’s a vital area.
Along with scrummaging and goal-kicking, the lineout is one of the basic areas that you must nail to win a game.
That is why I always picked Ben Kay in my side. I copped so much stick for not selecting Simon Shaw or Danny Grewcock but Kay was light years ahead when it came to running and calling the lineout.
With the help of South African Dr Sherylle Calder, who is working for England again as a vision specialist, Ben even learned Afrikaans to decode the Springboks’ calls!
Ben Kay was key to running the lineout – he even learned Afrikaans to decode Springbok calls
You see Kay now on the television and he is such a good analyst because of his attention to detail. If we had lost him in the build-up to the World Cup in 2003 it would have been a massive blow — we had no one else like him.
If you can screw up the opposition ball and win your own, you will make huge gains but if the reverse happens you come unstuck. George Kruis, who runs the England lineout, is a key man this afternoon.
England must stay calm too. I did chuckle at Gatland’s comments on Kyle Sinckler, saying the Harlequins prop is an ‘emotional timebomb’ — I love the coaches building these things up. It has been a bit quiet this week, so well done Warren!
Of course he will have seen Sinckler smack France’s Arthur Iturria on the head, which should have brought a yellow card. There are always a few words when you go to Wales as an England team and it seems like they have picked their targets.
Sinckler will be the one in the forwards, Owen Farrell in the backs. They won’t want to mess with Manu Tuilagi but will have a go at Farrell. This is all part of the game but adds some spice.
PREDICTION: England by three points
IT’S NOT A JOLLY BOYS’ OUTING, EDDIE
As a last thought, I am slightly surprised England head coach Eddie Jones left it until Friday afternoon to take his team down to Cardiff. How and when you travel to these games is an art, not a science.
In 2001 we went to Ireland early and stayed outside Dublin at an idyllic golf resort but it totally knocked the intensity out of the week.
Then in 2002 I made the monumentally daft decision of taking the team to France via the Channel Tunnel.
I am slightly surprised England head coach Eddie Jones left it so late to travel to Cardiff
It was a great option for a weekend with my wife Jayne but after the second hour stuck on the M25 it became clear it was a bad call.
To a man the players blamed the loss on that coach journey and it was totally my fault. I have no idea what I was thinking.
I hope Eddie has got this one right. I would have travelled on Thursday to soak up the atmosphere and visit the stadium but you don’t lose a Test match on the bus, unless you go via the Channel Tunnel!
